AGI - Artumas Group Inc.

http://www.artumas.com/index.php

Operations Update: Highlights

- Completed the tie-in of MB-1 (located 800 meters offshore in Mnazi Bay) to the gas processing facility on the Msimbati peninsula. The MB-1 well is dual-completed to the D-E and G Sands, and is capable of producing 20 MMscf/d.

-Completed MB-2 in the "F" sand on October 29, 2006. The results of the MB-2 appraisal well extends the Mnazi Bay Field structure updip from MB-1. Preliminary drill stem testing results for this interval show an absolute open flow potential of 140 MMscf/day. The two wells are capable of a combined production of 50 MMscf/day with the present tubing configuration.

-Commenced drilling program for the Mnazi Bay #3 (MB-3) exploration and appraisal well November 14, 2006. MB-3 is located approximately 1.5 km east of MB-2 and is being drilled to further extend the updip structure of the Lower Miocene and Oligocene sandstone formations of the Mnazi Bay Field, and to test a Lower Oligocene structure.

-Exploration well Msimbati-1X (MS-1X) is planned to follow the drilling of well MB-3. The MS-1X exploration well will be located approximately 5 km east of MB-1, and will be drilled for multiple targets including the exploration target of sands in the early Miocene ("K" sands) and further extension of the Miocene and Oligocene gas zones tested in MB-1 and MB-2 and targeted in MB-3. The MS-1X well is scheduled to be drilled over the February - April 2007 period using the Nabors 221 drilling rig held under contract by Artumas.

-Successfully completed and presently commissioning the gas processing facility on Msimbati Peninsula. This facility is capable of handling up to 25 MMscf/day gas and associated hydrocarbon liquids. The facility is designed for modular expansion and can accommodate future gas off-take volumes approaching 100 MMscf/d.

-Completed and presently commissioning both the 22 km x 203 mm land pipeline from Kelindi to Mtwara and the 5.2 km x 203 mm marine pipeline from the gas processing facility, across Mnazi Bay to Kelindi. The marine pipe pull from the Msimbati Peninsula gas processing facilities to interconnect with the land pipeline was successfully executed, marking the first application of this technology in the region. The 203 mm pipeline has carrying capacity of approximately 80 MMscf/d and has been sized to accommodate both load growth and generation expansion at Artumas' Mtwara power plant.

-Installation of the 12 MW gas fired power plant in Mtwara is scheduled for completion December 8th, 2006. Transitional commissioning of the integrated production facilities will continue through year end, with full commissioning of the integrated gas-to-power project targeted for early January.

En vurdering av verdiene

Brønner:
#1 1600 boepd, med mulig produksjon på 6300 boepd
#2 5700 boepd
#3 under boring, avgrensning av eksiterende soner samt test av ny dypere.

Produserbare reserver:
15 boe mill påviste
177 boe mill forventet
500++ boe mill i potensiale.

14 mill inplace per 640 acres spacing. Med 84 kvadratkm struktur er det teoretisk 450 mill fat inplace.



Verdivurdering
Antall aksjer 19,8 mill

Verdivurdering basert på mulig produksjon
$35 fatet fra Terra analyse
50% skatt, antar overskudd på 30% av omsetning, P/E på 10.
7000 boepd - 83 kr
12000 boepd - 142 kr

Verdivurdering av reserver:
15 mill $5 per fat = 23 kr
157 mill*0.5 $4 per fat = 98 kr
300 mill*0.2 $4 per fat = 75 kr
Totalt = 196 kr per aksje

Oppdatert informasjon mhp. AGI sitt potensiale.

http://www.newsweb.no/cdco/atmnt/Final_Par...07.pdf?id=50498

Fra dagens DN-papirtutgaven:

Gambler på energimygg

First Securities mener at de reelle verdiene i det lille energiselskapet Artumas Group er over dobbelt så høye som det aksjekursen skulle tilsi. Meglerhuset tar denne uken aksjen inn i sin portefølje, men påpeker at risikoen er høy.

INN. Etter en positiv nyhetsstrøm de siste ukene tror First Securities på et kraftig kurshopp for konsernsjef Stephen W. Mason i Artumas Group.

CHRISTIAN BJERKNES
Publisert: 30.01.2007

Oslo

First bytter denne uken ut Fred. Olsen Energy og teknologiselskapet Eltek, til fordel for Artumas Group og Kongsberg Automotive. Meglerhuset har store forventninger til det kanadiske energiselskapet Artumas Group som driver leteaktivitet etter olje- og gassressurser på Afrikas østkyst.

- Det er forsåvidt en spekulativ aksje med høy risiko, men den positive nyhetsstrømmen den siste tiden gir oss tro på at oppsiden er betydelig, sier sjefstrateg Peter Hermanrud i First Securities.

Selskapet meldte blant annet 18. januar at en tredjepartsgjennomgang bekreftet betydelige gassfunn i to av selskapets testbrønner i Tanzania. Artumas Group har syv-åtte lignende prospekter i Tanzania, og en stor leteblokk i Mosambik som ifølge First Securities har «et betydelig potensial».

- De reelle verdiene i selskapet er etter vår vurdering over dobbelt så høye som det aksjekursen skulle tilsi. Vi tror i tillegg at det kan komme avtaler som vil bringe disse verdiene frem i lyset, sier Hermanrud.

Han viser til at beliggenhetene til Artumas Groups eierandeler, gjør dem attraktive for andre oljeselskaper som opererer i området, blant annet den amerikanske oljekjempen Anadarko. First Securities har et tremåneders kursmål på 86 kroner for Artumas Group, og påregner dermed en kursoppgang på nær 57 prosent i forhold til mandagens innkurs på snaut 55 kroner. Aksjen var blant gårsdagens kursvinnere på Oslo Børs med en oppgang på over fem prosent.

Ut med Hydro

DnB Nor Markets satt med de to aksjene som gikk best i forrige uke, Fast Search & Transfer og Hydro. Meglerhuset overtar dermed ledelsen i DNs porteføljekonkurranse, og kan så langt i år skilte med en avkastning på drøyt åtte prosent. Søketeknologiselskapet Fast Search & Transfer bidro mest til den positive utviklingen med en oppgang på syv prosent.

- Vi har ment at Fast har vært undervurdert i lang tid, og det er dermed ikke overraskende at kursen går en del når markedet får øynene opp for aksjen, sier aksjeanalytiker Kristian Tunaal i DnB Nor Markets.

Hydro var også blant kursvinnerne forrige uke med en oppgang på fem prosent. DnB Nor ser seg fornøyd med avkastningen og tar denne uken Hydro ut av porteføljen.

- Vi tok inn Hydro i porteføljen fordi vi mente at selskapet var billig priset i forhold til Statoil. Etter oppgangen forrige uke er Hydro nå riktigere priset, og vi velger derfor å ta aksjen ut av porteføljen, sier Tunaal.

Tro på cruise

Terra Securities tar som det andre meglerhuset inn cruiseselskapet RCCL i sin portefølje denne uken. Aksjen har gått svakere enn markedet de siste ukene, men Terra har tro på at utviklingen nå vil snu.

- I tillegg til at aksjen nå er relativt lavt priset, venter vi at selskapet vil komme med positive signaler under resultatfremleggelsen neste uke, sier aksjestrateg Terje Nyborg i Terra Securities.

Han viser til at dagens nivå på oljeprisen utgjør en betydelig kostnadsreduksjon for selskapet, og at alt tyder på at bookingen vil være god i vinter.


______

Solgte AKD posten etter kontrakttildelingene før jul.
Disse kontraktene skulle normalt vært en mega-trigger, men her blir det år å vente før noe skjer. Satte alt og mer til inn i AGI, ser snart 100% fortjeneste her nå !
Tror dette blir som da jeg solgte TOM og puttet alt inn i TAA, forløpig har jeg vel 200% her.
Håper flere følger på i AGI, her er det mye å hente ennå.
Lykke til..


ASC oppjusterer :

Target 100 Potential NAV 330 Kr

We raise our target price from NOK 70 to NOK 100. We now include
the initial phases of the exploration programme that could very well
push the share way beyond our target, if the East African exploration
play is as exciting as market observers indicate. We reiterate our BUY
recommendation on the eve of the first exploration well in the
Rovuma basin for 25 years

Management’s delivered

Our initial target price of NOK 70 was based on the development
of the Mnazi Bay gas field. The first phase of the gas-to-power
plant is now up and running and the field is ready to boost output
by 20x or more, given demand.

By the end of Q1, management may have concluded negotiations
for industrial load power takers for 300MW and be in the final
stages of additional export volumes.We conclude that management has delivered on its frontier operation and turn our attention to the next phase.

Exploration kick-off

With the gas in place, we have examined the exploration
opportunities on the company’s blocks in Tanzania and
Mozambique. The first 3-5 wells targeting oil may yield NOK 60
per share or more, in our risk-adjusted exploration model.
The first exploration well is spudding this month.

Corporate action

A number of new entrants to the region are opening the way for
corporate opportunities, including farm-outs and joint ventures.
East Africa is fast becoming the new ‘darling’ among E&P
companies and Artumas holds key assets envied by most and is the
first producing

We raise our target to NOK 100, on the back of the increased
potential of the share, noting that our drilling success factor is 10%.

We believe that the operational risk attached to the
project is dramatically reduced, as the field could
actually now prove to be as big as 3 tcf, while we
in our valuation of the power project have kept our
conservative assumption of 1 tcf.
Commercialisation of the gas was another risk
attached to the project. However this seems to be
less of an issue today, and management should
currently be in negotiations with several interested
parties. In addition, we believe there could be
upside to our gas price assumptions as the gas
prices have remained high. The current gas price
for delivery in Mombasa is today USD 8 vs. our
assumption, equal to the minimum contractual
price, of 4.95.
Mozambique
Mozambique is an interesting play in the East
African region, and the potential is substantial. In
our valuation, using a conservative risk factor of
10%, our risk-adjusted value is NOK 22 per share
for a 3-well campaign, however as illustrated the
by the chart below, the value could be much higher.
We also believe that Artumas could be able to farm
out on the licence in exchange for interest in other
prospective areas, something which will increase
its exploration portfolio and reduce the risk. We
believe that the interest from several of the majors
in the area for such a deal confirms the good
prospects of their licence.

V a lu e p e r s h a re N O K

The value of the share could be NOK 200 given
initial success in Mozambique. Our base case calls
for a risk-adjusted NAV of NOK 108.
Sensitivity exploration programme Tanzania

The above DCF-based sum-of-the-parts calculation
summarises our fair value assessment. We argue
that the NOK 70 of ‘original’ potential is now
largely in the bag and that even a modest
exploration success will drive the share price to
NOK 100, or more.
We expect substantial news flow in the coming
months from possible farm-out agreements
securing funding whilst lowering risk, commercial
gas off-take agreements securing expansion of the
producing assets and results from the first
exploration well in this block for 25 years. All of
this should be out in this quarter. *******The big one, and
potential ‘company maker’, must wait until June.*********

Edited by nazze, 03 February 2007 - 22:44.

Fra First idag

ARTUMAS GROUP - BUY

Gas field becoming bigger and bigger

Artumas’ current expected reserves of 177 mboe were based on seismic and the results
from the MB 1 well. The MB 2 appraisal well drilled late last year yielded higher reserves
and better flow rates. Last month, the company announced third party verification of the
MB 2 well and also new results from the MB 3 well which had 20% higher reserves than
the MB 2 well. Consequently, we expect a significant upward revision of the reserves
from this field. The size of the field will certainly put the share on the attention list for
some of the oil majors operating in the area.

• AGI announced third party verified reserves from the MB 2 and MB 3 gas appraisal wells.
The new MB 3 well indicated 20% higher reserves than the MB 2 well drilled late last year.

• The expected field reserves of 177 mb and P50 reserves of 100 mb was based on the
results from MB 1. MB 2 indicated larger gas reserves and improved flow rates, wile the
MB 3 results relapsed today was even better than the MB 2 well. Consequently, we expect
a significant reserve increase for the entire field shortly. Artumas has 7-8 similar prospects
in this block in Tanzania. The increasing field size will certainly put the share on the
attention list for the larger players in the area, such as Anadarko, Eni, Norsk Hydro, Statoil,
Petronas and Petrobras.

• We believe the short-term news flow may trigger significant re-pricing of the share. The
company specific catalysts include gas off take contracts that are currently under
negotiations, a possible joint venture with Anadarko in Mozambique. We expect
announcements in March. In addition we look forward to the upcoming MS-1X exploration
well which is mainly targeting gas.

• We will update our NAV estimates of NOK 121/share, when we get a new full reserve
report from the field as we have not factored in the larger size in our NAV estimates.



_______

Når er neste gang vi får høre noe fra AGI?

gaudio, on 13 Mar 2007, 17:41, said:

I løpet av påskeferien, sannsynligvis. Da får vi resultater fra brønnen de borer rundt i. :)

Kenya due to buy power from Tanzania

2007-03-20 10:14:04
By Correspondent David Mambo


Tanzania`s gas and oil exploration efforts have won praise from Kenya and Uganda energy commissioners. Kenya`s Director of Energy Exploration and Production Don Riaroh said his country was readying itself for purchasing electricity from Artumas Group of Tanzania.

``If all goes well, Kenya will start buying electricity from Tanzania later this year. Currently, we are upgrade our systems so that power can flow between the two countries,? he said.

Riaroh expressed satisfaction with the pace at which Tanzania was faring in search for various forms of power.

He said the country was moving in the right direction by moving away from total dependence on hydro-electricity.

``Tanzania`s speed in oil and gas exploration vividly signifies that East African countries will soon be joining a global oil producing family,`` he said.

He said the development at Mnazi Bay gas project were impressive.

On his part, the Ugandan Commissioner for Petroleum Exploration and Production, Reuben Kashambuzi said, Tanzanians was a very lucky nation for successfully managing to produce own power from Mnazi Bay gas reserves,.

The two energy commissioners were hosted by Tanzania?s Energy Commissioner, Bashir Mrondoko, at the weekend in a two-day visit in Mtwara.

They visited Mnazi Bay`s gas processing facility and power station in Mtwara town.

Mrindoko said the commissioners` trip to Mnazi Bay was an extension of the East African Energy Conference held in Arusha last week, at which the trio led their countries delegations to deliberate energy development strategies in the region.

Artumas Vice President Ian Horswill, said his company was in discussion with the government of Tanzania to produce 300MW for sale to Kenya.

At the same time company was looking into the possibilities of pumping 300MW into the national grid, through either Songea to Makambako or use the Mtwara to Kidatu route, and then proceed with it to the north from there.

Last month, the Minister for Economy and Planning, Dr Juma Ngasongwa, during his visit at Mnazibay said Artumas was ready to sell 300MW to Kenya.

http://www.ippmedia....3/20/86671.html

Fra First:
Vi hever vårt kursmål i Artumas (AGI) med NOK 5 til NOK 95 basert på en oppgraderingen av selskapets reserver. Ifm en nylig gjennomført tredjepartsvurdering, annonserte AGI i dag en økning i selskapets P50 reserver for feltet der selskapet har en eierandel på 80%, fra 100 til 167 mboe. Videre meldte selskapet om en økning i forventede reserver fra 177 til 184 mboe.

Selskapet har boret til ønsket dybde i en letebrønn i Tanzania, og vi venter nyheter herfra ila en ukes tid.
Reserveoppgraderingen gjør AGI til en mer attraktiv oppkjøpskandidat, og styrker selskapets forhandlingsposisjon ifm gassavtaler da det kan vises til betydelige verifiserte gass-reserver.

Vi gjentar vår kjøpsanbefaling på aksjen med det nye kursmålet på NOK 95.

26/03-2007 07:42:08: (AGI) PRELIMINARY DRILL RESULTS MSIMBATI PROSPECT
Artumas Group Inc. is pleased to announce the
Msimbati - 1X (MS-1X) exploration well, drilled in
its Mnazi Bay Concession in Southern Tanzania,
reached target depth (TD) of 6570 feet on 20 March
2007, a full 11 days ahead of schedule.

Artumas Group Inc. is pleased to announce the
Msimbati - 1X (MS-1X) exploration well, drilled in
its Mnazi Bay Concession in Southern Tanzania,
reached target depth (TD) of 6570 feet on 20 March
2007, a full 11 days ahead of schedule.

The MS-1X well successfully penetrated the primary
exploration target, the Msimbati Prospect, at a
depth commencing at approximately 4800 feet. The
Msimbati Prospect is a series of multiple, stacked
sands of the Middle Miocene age. We are pleased
to
report initial well logs, completed 25 March 2007,
show strong indication of hydrocarbons in the
sandstone horizons. The Msimbati Prospect is a
separate, high amplitude fairway and upon
confirmation through Drill Stem Testing (DST),
will
be the second hydrocarbon-bearing discovery in the
Mnazi Bay Concession.

MS-1X is located 2.5 km to the southeast of the MB-
3 well site. Drilling through the Msimbati
Prospect, at 6000 feet the well encountered
the `Classic` Miocene/Oligocene sandstone
formations of the Mnazi Bay Gas Field appraised by
MB-2 and MB-3 wells. Successful production
testing
of the classic sands will support the aerial
extent
and enhance the resource estimates recently
provided by APA for the Mnazi Bay Gas Field.

Logging of the prospective sandstone horizons at
MS-
1X was completed March 25. Drill Stem Testing
(DSTs) of the lower, Mnazi Bay Gas Field classic
horizons will continue through to 31 March 2007.
It is anticipated that DSTs on the Msimbati
Prospect sandstone horizons will subsequently
commence April 1, with preliminary results
available mid-April 2007.

Seismic Program Approved: Artumas has given
approval for a new 2D seismic program focused on
high-grading a deeper exploration prospect for an
Eocene/Cretaceous oil test. The new seismic will
cover approximately 60 kilometers over the Mwambo
Prospect. Given supporting interpretation of this
new seismic, Artumas will look to drill an
exploration well, the Mwambo-1X (MW-1X), targeting
the deeper Eocene and Cretaceous turbidities and
fan deltaic sands. A secondary target would be the
shallower Tertiary sands which are currently being
produced from the Mnazi Bay Field. Drilling of the
Mwambo Prospect is currently targeted for 3Q:2007.

Takk gaudio, vi er på vei oppover. AGI tar kansje en 100% før vi tar sommerferie. Lykke til !

Artumas- Kraftig oppjustering av First !
New discovery and larger existing field?

We increase our Artumas NAV by NOK 8.2/share to NOK 115/share as a result of the results from the Msimbati – 1X (MS-1X) well. The well logs showed strong indications of hydrocarbons from the well’s primary exploration target, the Msimbati Prospect. The well was further drilled through the primary target and at 6,000 feet encountered the sandstone formations of the Mnazi Bay Gas Field, indicating the possibility of increased resources in the existing Mnazi Bay Gas Field. We bump our 12m target to NOK 103.

Kjøpte 1000 på 60kr (skulle vært bytta ut mange flere med TOM aksjer).Vurderer 1000 til til 64,50.

Hva tror du Nazze ,kan jeg få de billigere?

http://www.newsweb.no/atmnt/CorporatePrese...07.pdf?id=41184

Gaudio, det vil jeg absolutt anbefale deg, men vær snar.
En DST test tar normalt 4-6 dager, noe som betyr at vi kan ha en mulig megamelding allerede mandag.
Endelig bekreftelse beregnes av tredje part, og denne verifikasjonen ventes i midten av april ifg. AGI.

Har 1600 til snitt 64,90 nå ,men hva er så dette med den emisjonen? Er det godt eller dårlig nytt?
de trenger tydeligvis mer penger.

Dette går jo riktig så bra
Tror jeg drøyer til mai med å selge.

Synd at det ikke er flere enn du og jeg, gaudio, som bryr oss om den mest potente oljemyggen.
Triggere kort/ mellomlang sikt :

1. Msimbati DST-resultater ( Meget snart.)
2. Salgsavtale 300MW.
3. Reserveoppgradering.
4. Salgsavtale gass.
5. Spudding MW1.
6. Letestart Mosambique.

Last, but not least we expect announcement of a farm in partner in 1-2 oil prospects in Tanzania as the company has opened a data room for the oil majors (Petrobras, Anadarko, Statoil, Norsk Hydro, Eni and many others) in the area.


PS ! Ser det like sannsynnlig at AGI blir 'slukt' på sikt slik som Assessit og Technor ble i sine dager. Simrad Optronics ble riktignok skilt ut fra TEC før salget og alle vet hvilken børsrakett dette ble. Jeg skrev om det og anbefalte folk inngang, men her er det mest interesse for produksjons bedriften Tomra, som har en enkel produksjon rent tekninsk og er avhengig av salg.
Jeg kunne skrevet mye om dette der jeg kunne gjort en sammenlikning mot gamle Nera som virkelig er teknologisk lengst fremme på sitt felt, og har mye av sitt salg i 'nye områder'.
Vi behøver ikke å si mer om det siden alle vet hvordan markedet 'pris-setter' dette.

Edited by nazze, 02 April 2007 - 12:35.

Eg er òg inne i denne, vil som gaudio sitte litt lenger enn tenkt før eit sal.
Nazze, de 6 triggerene ser lovande ut! Vil du tru punkt 2-6 kjem i første kvartal?

Mvh
darkiz

Hallo darkiz,
Pkt. 2-4 i Q2. Pkt. 5 i Q3 og pkt. 6 utpå vinteren igjen.
Ha deg en kjekk lesestund på http://www.artumas.com/html/index.php

God påske

Hei, takker for svar!
Har surfa litt på sida deira og dessutan lest Corporate Pres. frå mars i år. Har eit par spørsmål til du kanskje svarar på?

- Kan du forklare desse punkta, og kva meiner du om dei?
(side 23 i Corp. Pres. Mars07)
�� Joint Venture with TransCanada Pipelines – FEED Study

�� TransCanada and OSG Joint Venture to build, own and

operate shipping assets.

- Nesten alle grafane i heftet stiger "1000%" i 2008-2010. Er det vits å gå inn no?

- "PS ! Ser det like sannsynnlig at AGI blir 'slukt' på sikt slik som Assessit og Technor ble i sine dager. Simrad Optronics ble riktignok skilt ut fra TEC før salget og alle vet hvilken børsrakett dette ble."
NÅR?
Hehe, no skal eg på tur i morgon og kjem ikkje att før neste veke, så ingen hast med svara.
Takk på førehand, fortsatt god påske!;-)