mais, hvete, ris og gjødsel

Hei.

Har lest fra flere kilder at matvarer -mais, hvete, ris- er i starten av en langsiktig bull-trend.

Jeg lurer på om noen her i forumet har noen erfaringer med spekulasjoner i disse råvarene, deres derivater eller gjødselprodusenter?

Hilsen,
LuKi

Har vært et skikkelig rally i hvete siste tiden, mye pga av skogbrannene som herjer i Russland.

De meldte ikke om dette på nyhetene før i går men tydelig at mange har fått med seg dette før den tid.
Mulig dette blir forsterket pga spekulasjoner.

Når skal vi begynne shortingen her da ?
Litt skummelt å gå mot trenden men vil tro den faller som en stein når det skal tilbake til normalen.

From Bloomberg:

American farmers are poised to enjoy one of the greatest years ever for American agriculture as wheat prices skyrocket in the wake of Russia’s drought, according to Dennis Gartman, economist and editor of the Gartman Letter.

Wheat rallied to the highest price in 23 months after Russia, the world’s third-biggest grower, banned exports of the crop following the country’s worst drought in at least a half-century. Prices for wheat have climbed 17 percent this month, on top of a 38 percent surge last month.

The U.S. has the world’s only abundant source of grain in deliverable locations, Gartman said today in a radio interview with Tom Keene on “Bloomberg Surveillance.” A heat wave in Russia, dry weather in Kazakhstan, Ukraine and the European Union, and flooding in Canada ruined crops.

“You have a situation unlike anything that I’ve seen in the 35 years I’ve been trading in the grain markets,” Gartman, 59, said. “This is going to be one of the great years for American agriculture probably in history. Let’s not mince words here.”

Wheat for December delivery rose 54 cents to $8.0925 a bushel as of 11:46 a.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade, the highest since September 2008.

Gartman, who began his career as an economist for Cotton Inc. in the early 1970s, said wheat’s rally will also boost other crops, including rice, corn and soybeans, as consumers seek alternatives.

Windy City

“You can almost hear the drumbeat in Chicago,” the Suffolk, Virginia-based economist said. “This is not just wheat that is going higher. It’s pulling the entire agriculture commodity markets along with it.”

Companies, particularly in U.S. Midwestern states that support the agriculture industry, are also poised to benefit as farmers spend more money on livestock feed, machinery and retail goods, Gartman said. He recommended buying shares of farm equipment manufacturer Deere & Co., fertilizer producers and local Midwestern banks, which will gain from better loans.

Beer brewers, restaurant companies and livestock producers may be hurt by increasing commodity prices, he said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Alex Kowalski in New York at akowalski13@bloomberg.... Tom Keene in New York at tkeene@bloomberg.net

Goldman Sachs mener hveteprisene har skutt for høyt, men at usikkerhet rundt produksjonen vil fortsette å støtte prisene på kort sikt.

mulig HS på gang her nå.

Agrium byr på australias største korneksportør

Crop Progress: Corn Conditions Slip

DBA har gådd bra helt siden mai....den har støtte på 27...

Kan være et bra alternativ for diverifisering av porteføljen.

Provinsene som står for to tredjedeler av Kinas hveteproduksjon opplever den verste tørken på 60 år. Det kan få enorme konsekvenser.

Hentet fra FT.com :

Corn price plunges as US acreage rises
Grain suffers its steepest fall in 15 years

Er DBA og DAG akkurat samme ???

...vurdere long her hvis denne tester støtten sin etter bruddet opp.....

sharpshoota, on 26 August 2011 - 11:46, said:

Jo nå fant jeg det ut , DAG er samme bare med dobbelgearing....altså DBA X2....

Prisene på soyabønner og hvete er nå på det høyeste nivået på fem måneder. Det rammer verdens fattigste hardt.

Litt mer info om DBA:
DescriptionThe PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (Symbol: DBA) (the “Fund”) is based on the DBIQ Diversified Agriculture Index Excess Return™ (the “Index” or "DB Agriculture Index") and is managed by DB Commodity Services LLC (the “Managing Owner”). The Index is a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on some of the most liquid and widely traded agricultural commodities. The Index is intended to reflect the performance of the agricultural sector.
PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund

The hottest summer since 1955 in parts of the Midwest has eroded corn yields in the U.S., the world’s largest grower and exporter, sending prices to record highs for the harvest season