Hva skjer om veksten i Kina nærmer seg 10%?

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Les nedennevnte artikkel og kom med dine kommentarer og synspunkter.

 

Min umiddelbar reaksjon er at oljeprisen sannsynligvis vil holde seg på et høyt nivå lenge.

- Skipsfartsnæringen vil vel få høyere rater for å frakte alle varene fra/til Kina.

- Så vil det vel bli større aktivitet for å finne mere olje.

- Riggselskapene er da kanskje en branskje som får økt fokus?

- Alternative energikilder som REC går kanskje lysere tider i møte?

 

Her kommer artikkelen:

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China May Grow 9.5% in 2006, Beating Govt Target (Update5)

 

May 6 (Bloomberg) -- China's economy may expand 9.5 percent in 2006, ahead of target, indicating the government must do more to cool an investment boom driving down prices for metal and real estate, Vice Finance Minister Li Yong said.

 

``We have to control investment among local governments'' which have been spending to build factories that guarantee employment and tax revenue, Li said today at the Asian Development Bank's annual meeting in Hyderabad, India.

 

China's surging investment may lead to excess production capacity, falling prices and result in bad loans, increasing the risk of a sudden economic slowdown, according to the World Bank. The central bank may raise its key lending rate again, after last month increasing it for the first time since October 2004, Li said.

 

``This shows that China isn't slowing down anytime soon,'' said Joseph Tan, a Singapore-based economist at Standard Chartered. ``This will not be the last interest rate hike we'll see.''

 

The central bank increased its one-year lending rate by 0.27 percentage point on April 27. It left deposit rates unchanged to spur consumer spending. China's official growth forecast for this year is 8 percent, according to an Oct. 29 commerce ministry report.

 

Investment in factories and roads in urban areas rose 29.8 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier.

 

Imports, Exports

 

``Whether we increase by a quarter of a half percent is very hard to say,'' Li said, adding that further changes would happen ``when appropriate'' and that he didn't know when that would be. The country will maintain a tight credit policy while keeping money supply loose and pursue a ``prudent'' fiscal and monetary policy in 2006, Li said.

 

China also wants to balance imports and exports, Li said, acknowledging that last year's trade surplus was ``still very high.'' The nation aims to bolster its existing mix of imports, including airplanes and agricultural goods, with purchases of high-technology goods that help clean the environment, he said.

 

China's trade surplus tripled to a record $102 billion in 2005 as exports jumped, increasing tensions with the U.S. and European Union over the nation's currency policy.

 

Exchange Rates

 

The Group of Seven on April 21 pressed emerging Asian economies, particularly China, to allow their exchange rates to strengthen to ease what it considers is an unfair advantage to exporters. The G-7, almost two-thirds of the world economy, comprises the U.S., Japan, Germany, the U.K., France, Italy and Canada.

 

China won't bow to demands from ``major economies'' to hasten exchange-rate changes, Finance Minister Jin Renqing said at a May 4 briefing in Hyderabad, adding that the currency's level against the dollar reasonably reflects the country's balance of international payments.

 

The yuan has gained 1.1 percent since July 21, when China revalued the currency 2.1 percent and ended a decade-old peg to the dollar.

 

The People's Bank of China buys dollars and sells its own currency to help slow gains in the yuan, adding to foreign- exchange reserves that surged 32.8 percent to $875.1 billion at the end of March from a year earlier. China holds 20 percent of the world's currency reserves.

 

Foreign Reserves

 

The pace of growth in the reserves ``has resulted in serious difficulties for the central bank to manage domestic monetary aggregates and intensified political pressure from trading partners on the'' yuan, Jun Ma, an economist at Deutsche Bank said April 18.

 

``I don't like such high foreign reserves,'' said Li, who pledged to ``deepen reform of treasury cash management.'' China's foreign exchange policy would curtail speculative inflows, which he forecast will gradually slow down as the government works to reduce the record trade surplus, Li said.

 

China should keep restrictions on foreign exchange purchases for investment because the government doesn't yet have the capability to monitor such transactions closely enough, Li said today.

 

``I personally don't support opening of the capital account because we cannot monitor clearly the short-term inflows,'' he said. ``Our banking supervision is relatively weak.''

 

Foreign-Exchange Restrictions

 

China should eliminate restrictions on conversion of currencies for trading purposes and undertake a ``gradual'' easing of limits on foreign-exchange purchases for investment, People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan told reporters in Washington on April 22.

 

China allowed the yuan to be freely convertible under the current account in December 1996, removing limits on the use of foreign exchange for trade in goods and services. Restrictions on inflows and outflows of money for investment purposes, or the capital account, mean the currency market is dominated by companies involved in trade.

 

 

To contact the reporter for this story:

Rob Delaney in Hyderabad at robdelaney@bloomberg.net.

 

Last Updated: May 6, 2006 04:30 EDT

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