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To mulige suksessfaktorer som ofte er glemt eller undervurdert, selv blant "de store og erfarne", er i mitt hode og svært begrensede erfaring: realisme og forenkling

 

Klarer man ikke svare på disse spørsmålene ut ifra egen erfaring, så har man egentlig ikke et system som man kan følge, for man kjenner det ikke godt nok og klarer ikke omstille seg når markedet allikevel bryter "reglene dine" for hvordan det burde oppføre seg! Derfor er det ganske håpløst å prøve å følge noen andres systemer også, om man ikke da er tilfreds med å tape penger.

 

Grunnen til at man MÅ stille seg disse spørsmålene, er at målet må være at det man kommer frem til må være realistisk og mulig for en selv å bruke i praksis, med de praktiske mulighetene man faktisk har til rådighet:

 

Hva KAN fungere?

HVORFOR skulle det kunne fungere?

HVOR ofte vil det kunne fungere?

HVORDAN kan man oppdage det som kan fungere?

NÅR har man praktisk sett mulighet til å begynne å trade det?

HVA skal man da gjøre?

HVA gjør man for å vedlikeholde traden?

HVA skal man gjøre når det ikke fungerer lengere?

HVORDAN kan jeg på mest mulig realistisk måte kunne stole på systemet jeg bruker?

osv.

 

Da trengs kanskje ikke 4-6 motstridende skjermer, 5-10 "feel good" indikatorer som bare forvirrer hverandre, fokus på det perfekte setup og vente på at det som har skjedd en sjelden gang, muligens vil skje igjen på akkurat samme måte. Slikt ubegrunnet håp om suksess er en illusjon som skaper falsk trygghet og falske forutsetninger.

 

Trade execution og minimalisering av tap stiller da langt frem i køen over hva som bør prioriteres.

Samtidig må analyse-delen tilrettelegges 100% for realistisk trade execution.

 

 

Her er en trader som klarer å forklare volume profile / auction theory tilrettelagt for akkurat forenkling:

 

 

OK, denne over kan være for avansert for de fleste av oss, altså FOR enkelt! Her er en litt lengere forklaring på samme konsept:

 

 

FREMDELES for enkelt?? Her er en forenklet, men presis, innføring i volume profile (forenklet versjon av market profile):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQVpdqMPykk

 

 

I tråd med at lengere analyser ofte gir mer signifikante svar over lengere tidsrom (dog med færre signaler), så kan Volume Per Price benyttes istedetfor Volume Profile. Ytterligere en forenkling, og en ikke-lineær sådan, så innehar en egenskap mer i tråd med markedene, som også fungerer ikke-lineært.

 

 

Om man kan tjene penger på dette avhenger av svarene i spørsmålene over. Det er veldig enkelt å tape penger allikevel siden markedet elsker å ta ut stopper og teste opp og ned hele tida.

Edited by FrankS
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Article on a Daily goal

Below is an article by one of the Daytradethemarkets.com folks. It talks about the pros and cons of a daily goal. it's worth reading.

A Daily Profit Goal?
The issue is about having a daily trading goal.

What are the positives? Negatives?

Do you have a daily goal? Should you?

I personally have a pretty strong opinion about this, and I’ll explain that opinion in a moment. But first, let’s discuss…

Why Is A Daily Trading Goal So Appealing To So Many People?
There are several reasons. Mainly, it’s a simple concept that appeals to our human need for certainty.

After all, we’ve all done the math in our heads before. It’s “I want to make X dollars per month…I just need to make X dollars per day, which is X points on X contracts, and I’m there!”

It also fits in with what we’re conditioned to believe makes us successful. Set a goal > achieve the goal. And, generally speaking, that’s a good plan.

And, what’s more, that type of goal-setting works in most aspects of life.

Trading Is Different Than Most Aspects Of Life.
Like I mentioned above, we’ve been told to set a goal and then achieve the outcome.

For example, this works great if you’re running a business. In fact, most successful business people are successful because they are so driven. They make a decision, and then by desire and force of will, they make it happen. In other words, the more focused you are and the harder you try, the better you are likely to do.

Trading, however, is different. If you try to “make it happen” by sheer desire, you’re in for some trouble. You can’t “force” anything on the market.

In fact, you have to turn that “make it happen” attitude upside down. You have learn to be patient. You have to detach and let the market come to you.

I like to think of it like being an alligator in the swamp. An alligator just lies patiently in the weeds waiting for an easy meal. It doesn’t go thrashing crazily around the swamp chasing everything in sight.

Yet, that’s what so many of us do as traders. We go chasing after every little thing we see in the market.

How Does A Daily Trading Goal Accentuate That Problem?
Let’s take a slow, choppy day for example. In other words, let’s consider a day where there isn’t a ton of opportunity. That doesn’t mean you couldn’t have made money…it just means there wasn’t much to work with.

In fact, on these types of days, you can make a case that the best trading decision is to do nothing…to stand aside and wait for better days.

But – what happens if you have a daily trading goal? You’re more than likely going to force a trade.

What happens if that trade loses? Well, you’re down money, and you still have to reach your trading goal right? So, now you’re even more likely to force a trade.

What happens if that trade loses? Now, a disastrous day is a possibility. You force another trade or you hold it too long because you “need a big winner”. I think you get the point.

And, if you look back, what was at the root of this bad day? A focus on your results (reaching your daily trading goal). You were focused on money. You weren’t focused on your process. You weren’t focused on making the best possible decision in the moment.

More “Conditioned” Behavior
This also speaks to another conditioned behavior that most of us have. It’s to work hard in order to make money.

So, when you’re at your computer, you’re at “work” trading, right? You need to do something, right? Otherwise, it’s a wasted day, right?

Well, not so fast. As traders, we don’t get paid by the hour. We don’t get paid by the day. We get paid to be good decision makers. If we get very good at making decisions, we get highly paid.

Yet, we’re societally conditioned to work for a day’s pay. We’re conditioned to “work” for our money.

Backward Thinking
Additionally, a daily trading goal puts the risk/reward ratio in the wrong order. Think about this for a second. Let’s say you have a daily trading goal of $500 per day (doesn’t matter…could be $50 per day, could be $5000 per day).

What’s the best you could do if you’re “successful” and reach your goal? $500.

What’s the worst you could do? Unless you have a daily stop in place, your loss is somewhat unlimited. So, best case plus $500. Worst case minus ??

Plus, you force yourself to trade on bad trading days and you force yourself to stop trading on great trading days. Why would you do that? Some days the market is like an all-you-can-eat buffet. Those days don’t come around all the time, so why would you want to stop yourself after one serving?

What Is The Answer?
Ultimately, the answer is to find a strategy that works for you. If having a daily trading goal works for you, that’s great. I know for some people it does and they are able to manage the downsides of the plan.

However, in my opinion, in makes more sense to NOT focus on the results…NOT on the money…NOT on a goal. And, by definition, if your focus is a daily goal, you’re focused on the money.

Instead, focus on making the best possible decision in the current moment. Focus on staying in flow with the market.

That might mean the best decision is to not take a trade.

That might mean the best decision is to hold onto a winner longer than what feels comfortable because the evidence is telling you there is no reason to bail on the trade yet.

That might mean taking another trade because the evidence tells you that you have an edge, even if you already have a nice profit on the day.

It also means focusing on your ‘inner’ self and being aware of how you feel. Some days you just don’t have it. Maybe you have another life event that’s taking your attention. Some days you’re just not in flow with the market. Have the awareness to be able to step away.

Get Off “The Clock”
And, finally, try not to be defined by the “clock” when you’re trading. By that, I mean a couple things.

One, if you can get rid of the “day by day” idea of profit and loss, that will help. Yes, it’s hard to do when we get daily P&L statements, but if you can instead begin to define success by your decision making rather than by your daily P&L, you’re well on your way.

Second, don’t worry how much you trade each day. Some people do better trading 1 or 2 hours, some people do better trading the whole day. The key is to trade well (make good decisions) for however long you’re trading.

 

Good luck smile.png

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http://www.simplicitytradinghost.com/Webinars/2009-12-08/Flash/2009-12-8-Fear-Attitude-and-Trading-The-Plan.html

 

FT71 om trading planen....hvordan man setter den opp....osv osv

 

Annbefaler virkelig at dere får med dere disse webinarene til FT71 mens dere har sjansen, de kommer desverre bare til å ligge ute ei stund fremover før de blir fjernet.

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Helt enig der. med trading rundt RR 1:1 slik veldig mange gjør det er man ganske sårbar for dårlige perioder.

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Helt enig der. med trading rundt RR 1:1 slik veldig mange gjør det er man ganske sårbar for dårlige perioder.

 

Mer om R/R, sannsynligheter og beskytte % av kontoen:

http://www.trade2day1.com/2013/11/probabilities-riskreward-trade.html

 

RR = 0.5/1.0 er egentlig en grei trade om sannsynligheten for vinn % er 95%, og kan kalles "scalping".

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