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Kina og USA trikser med sine egne valutaer for å tjene urettmessig mye på handelen med utlandet. De to landenes handelspartnere sitter igjen med regningen, hevder Brasils finansminister.

 

Guido Mantega framholdt i Paris denne uken at all «manipulasjon» av valutakurser er forkastelig. Den amerikanske og den kinesiske regjeringen beskyldes for å holde kursene på sine valutaer kunstig lave for å gjøre landenes produkter billigere på verdensmarkedet.

 

– Selvfølgelig manipulerer Kina sin valuta, og det ville vært bedre om kursen på kinesiske yuan fikk svinge i tråd med utviklingen i markedet. Jeg vet ikke om det er helt riktig å kalle USAs opptreden manipulasjon, men dollaren ligger for lavt, sa Mantega.

 

Kina og USA er svært viktige eksportmarkeder for Brasil, og spesielt for brasilianske jordbruksprodukter. Regjeringen i Brasilia er bekymret over at landets egen valuta real har steget i kurs, mens amerikanske dollar og kinesiske yuan er svekket.

 

USAs sentralbank Federal Reserve har innført et pengepolitisk grep som kalles kvantitativ lettelse. Dette er et hjelpemiddel til å skape fart i den finansielle utviklingen blant annet ved å trykke opp nye penger, noe som fører til at valutakursen faller. (©NTB)

 

 

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There will inevitably be a strong market reaction to the headline monthly payroll release. From a medium-term perspective, the subtleties within the data rather than the headline may actually be more important for the economy, Federal Reserve and the dollar as the dividing line between weak growth and recession is both fine and of crucial importance.

The reaction to Thursday’s US ISM data suggests that there could well be a win-win situation for the dollar, at least in the short term and fading any EUR/USD or GBP/USD rallies looks the best approach. Major caution is required as there will be the risk of erratic trading conditions, especially with the Labour Day holiday on Monday. The market is also likely to be influenced strongly by the heavy hand of the Chinese central bank which is rumoured to be defending a big no-touch option barrier in the EUR/USD 1.42 area. Given Euro-zone vulnerability, the Euro is likely to hit heavy resistance in the 1.4350 area, especially as there will be a reluctance to hold short dollar positions over the weekend.

 

There will be a deterioration in risk appetite if there is a weaker than expected report of 25,000 or worse and there will certainly be a very big reaction if there is negative payroll growth for the month. In this environment, fear over the US and international economy will increase again. Global stock markets are likely to be subjected to heavy selling pressure and there would be renewed defensive demand for Treasuries and the dollar as the financial sector comes under severe pressure.

 

A stronger than expected release of more than 110,000 net jobs would improve risk appetite which would lessen defensive dollar demand, but there would also be increased confidence in the US outlook which would lessen the need for immediate Fed action in the form of additional quantitative easing

 

 

www.investica.co.uk

 

 

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Euroen holder seg meget godt i forhold til aksjemarkedene......skulle den bryte motstanden her vil jo dette være bullish. Bryter vi trenden jeg la inn nedenfor her så er jo det bearish....så da er det bare å følge med.

 

 

heisann!!........nå ser det ut til at trenden brytes, så lenge ut til at vi skulle videre opp men de siste dagene har satt en stopper for det......

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