Jump to content

Behovet for å han en strategi


Recommended Posts

I forbindele med min intreden på børsen denne kommende uken har jeg satt opp min forretningsplan. Jeg er overbevist om at det er viktig å ha en konkret strategi.


Dette er første utkast. Pek gjerne ut selvmotsigelser, feil eller forbedrings muligheter.


1.Hovedmålet med strategien er å beskytte egenkapitalen.


2.Jeg skal ha en klar formening om hvilken vei markedet går (OSEBX). Som hovedregel kan jeg være investert når markedet er bull, men stå på sidelinjen når markedet er bear. Jeg kan kun gjøre unntak fra dette når jeg har en solid edge.


3.Før jeg går inn i en posisjon må jeg definere risk/reward. R/R skal være realistisk definert, og potensialet må minst være på 1:3.


4.Som hovedregel er strategien min å kjøpe aksjer som er i stigende trend ved støtten, og selge ved motstand, eventuelt vente på brudd. Unntak kan gjøres hvis jeg oppdager en formasjon som gir en god edge, for eksempel ved et brudd eller andre tydelige kjøpssignaler. Alle aksjer som kjøpes må vise tekniske kjøpssignaler, og jeg skal ikke handle basert på fundamentale nyheter, så lenge dette ikke er åpenbart urimelig. Jeg skal aldri kjøpe aksjer som er i synkende trender.


5.Tidshorisonten er hovedsakelig kortsiktig (1-2 uker), men jeg kan tillate meg å være langsiktig så lenge posisjonen stiger. Hvis jeg er langsiktig i en posisjon skal det hele tiden settes trailing-stops, jeg må følge opp aksjen på daglig basis. Disse skal strammes inn jo mer aksjen stiger, slik at jeg alltid vil sikre en gevinst.


6.Jeg må alltid ha mekanisk stop-loss for å begrense tap. Denne skal settes maks 10 % under kjøpspris, helst ikke over 5 %. Ettersom hovedstrategien min er støtte/motstand, skal stop-lossen som regel være rett under støtten, men likevel med rom for feilmargin. Om en aksje åpenbart er en taper, skal jeg aldri nøle med å selge den.


7.Alle kjøp og salg skal begrunnes og føres inn i logg. Denne loggen skal inneholde informasjon som dato, antall, pris, kurs og lignende, men også graf som viser kjøpssignalet, skriftlig forklaring og begrunnelse av grafen og en definert R/R. Etter å ha solgt skal jeg evaluere hver handel, for å finne forbedringsmuligheter.


8.Fokuser på nedgangen før oppgangen.


9.Etter store tap eller gevinster skal jeg ta en pause for å unngå å handle irrasjonelt.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

Stjålet ett annet sted....:


There are 2 kinds of traders. Those who have experienced a trading slump, and those who will. Any experienced trader who says he's never been through a slump is a liar. The majority of good traders have gone through flat periods at some point in their career. Many slumps have a psychological reason behind them. Your belief and confidence in yourself are going to be your main tools iin pulling yourself out of a slump. Let's say you've found a trading method that works for you. You've also developed good money management rules. Everything is in place, yet you find yourself still not pulling the trigger. You still don't feel comfortable following your rules, you have trouble exiting losing trades, and in general, you've lost your "rhythm" with the market. What's missing? The psychological part of trading is the most important, yet that is the side that people spend the least time on. How many people are willing to admit that the battleground isn't the market itself, but what's going on inside them? The more you talk with other traders, the more you'll learn that they all go through common experiences. Speaking personally, most traders have run the gamut through all the classic mistakes, and back again.


But what distinguishes those who can overcome them? The markets are an exciting game, but at the same time, they are also emotionally, and sometimes physically challenging. The mental side can be summed up as 1/3 beliefs, 1/3 concentration, and 1/3 managing the stress. Learn how to deal with distractions, because they're going to be present almost every single day. You will have more confidence if you're following a defined method. You must feel like you're making the right play, rather than worrying about the outcome. It's OK to make the right play and not have the trade work out. Don't worry if the price goes a little bit higher after you sell it. I always say to treat trading mistakes like cheating on a diet. There is nothing you can do to undo the damage except get back to exercising to work it off. Stress impairs your judgment, so learn to recognize when your thinking is being clouded by stress. Your mental state outside market hours will affect your decision-making ability during market hours. A person can have all the knowledge in the world, but if he doesn't have the presence of mind to handle a stressful situation, where does that knowledge go? Straight out the window.


It's easier to be flexible and change your mind when you're relaxed. If you're all tensed up, it blocks the flow of thought. Unfortunately, human beings are creatures of emotion. Intelligence with regards to trading is not about knowing the names of every company in the S&P 500, but more about reacting the right way under pressure and making the right decisions when they need to be made. Experience is learning how to recognize your mistakes when you make them. However, speaking personally again, experience doesn't always keep you from making the same mistakes. Quit thinking about ways you can lose money. It's better to put the trade on and assume some risk than it is not to try at all. Once you've made it back after a drawdown, your confidence will triple. You will quickly get a "feel" for the market when you have a trade on. However, you're always going to be the most objective when you don't have a trade on. Funny how that works. If any of this has struck home or if you have stories to share, please feel free to email me.







Are You Adapting To Current Market Conditions?


When the equities markets switched to decimals a few years ago, many intraday traders were affected by it. Traders had to "adapt" their trading methods to conform to the tighter spreads and decreased volatility. Those that didn't adapt either blew up or left to do something else. I did a comparison of this past 8 weeks' ranges in the S&P 500 and the Dow to the same time period a year ago. The average weekly range for the S&P 500 in the past 8 weeks is 29 points, compared to 51 points for this time last year. The Dow is roughly in the same boat. The average weekly range for the Dow in the past 8 weeks is 270 points, compared to 495 points for this time last year. You could make another comparison with this past summer's ranges also. What does today have to do with last year or this past summer you ask? The answer is absolutely NOTHING. The point is that you have to make adaptations to your trading to conform to the changing market conditions, whether it be on your stops, your profit paring, or your expectations and reactions in general. I use the word "conform" in a humble sense because none of us are not big enough to make the market comply with our methods. If the range on what you're trading is too tight for you, or your expectations aren't realistic for what the market is giving you, then you need to adapt your trading plan parameters or find something else that suits you with a better tradable range.







Treat Yourself Like a Beginner


I really believe that before you can get anywhere substantial as a trader, you really have to flush your ego down the toilet and embrace the pain of feeling like a fool sometimes. No matter how much it hurts. Most people can't do this. They may want to, they may talk like they can do it, but they can't. You know how some people talk and talk and talk, and despite what they say, you know it's just talk? When it comes to embracing the pain, that's the barrier right there. Most people are weak, plain and simple. That's just the way it is.


The only real secret is to always treat yourself like a beginner. Thinking is the key, whether you have just a few rules, or a truckload of rules. Thinking things all the way through is the only way to make those connections. Tips won't do it, and advice won't do it, because nobody really knows what your flaws are, except you.





Link to comment
Share on other sites

Her er et lite utfrag/teaser fra "Trading in the Zone" (det er om risikoevaluering):


"The typical trader won't predefine the risk of getting in to a trade because he doesn't believe it's necessary. The only way he could believe "it's isn't necessary" is if he believes he knows what's going to happen next. The reason he believes he knows what's going to happend next is because he won't get into a trade until he is convinced that he's right. At the point where he's convinced the trade will be a winner, it's no longer necessary to define the risk (because if he's right, there is no risk)."


Kanskje litt simpelt, men allikevel GODT sagt synes nå jeg!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites


This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Lage deg en bruker i dag for alle funksjoner. Helt gratis!

    Logg inn eller lag deg en bruker

  • Create New...