TAT - Tandberg TV

[Zoonic]

FIRST OM TAT 22.07

 

- F I R S T L O O K -

 

Title: Weak guidance from Harmonic

 

Company: Tandberg TV

 

Recommendation: Accumulate

 

Share price: NOK 83.75

 

Target: NOK 100.00

 

Harmonic today announced its final results for the second quarter. While the accounts were marginally positive on the back of the ugly late June PW, the guidance for 2H was very disappointing.

 

Harmonic delivered a top line of USD 59.8 million, in the upper end of the pre-announced range of USD 56 to 60 million. According to management, the entire top line miss vs original guidance of USD 73-77 million is related to the US cable market. The gross margin of 39% is, although on a very low level, a slight positive surprise considering bearish statements at the conference call following the pre-warning. Operating profit came in at negative USD 2.9 million.

 

Harmonic management guides for 2H revenues of USD 100-120 million. This is very weak for a company which had USD 86 million on the top line in 4Q 04 and USD 73 million in 1Q 05. Within this range, the company will under any circumstance display negative Y/Y growth from last year's 2H revenues of USD 136 million. Harmonic expects a decent market within the telco segment, but continued weakness within satellite. Within cable, the customers' buying patterns remain "difficult to predict".

 

Conclusion: We consider Harmonic's guidance to be very weak, and judged by the after hours share price decline of 8.5% this is also the perception in the US equity market. Tandberg TV has displayed that the company can prosper independent of Harmonic's missteps. Still, we judge Harmonic's bleak outlook to be slightly negative also from a Tandberg TV point of view.

[Zoonic]

DnBNOR nedgraderer TAT

 

Mens Tandberg TV nylig noterte ny toppnotering for de siste

fem årene har Harmonic rapportert et fall på 25% i enkoderpriser

og DirecTV utsatt MPEG4 HD-lanseringen med 2 måneder.

På denne bakgrunn har vi nedjustert Q4 og 2006-estimatene.

Selskapet står foran en god langsiktig utvikling, men mener vi

ordreinngangen vil være for lav til å drive kursen videre på kort

sikt. DnB NOR Markets endrer derfor anbefalingen fra kjøp til

hold med et kursmål i området NOK 85-90.

• DirecTV, Echostar og BSkyB har i løpet av den siste tiden kommentert sine

planer for MPEG4 HD. Vi har vært positive til MPEG4-ordreinngangen fra

operatørene i år, men har nå endret oppfatning med hensyn til timingen.

DirecTV har utsatt lanseringen fra september til november, hvilket

reduserer effekten av en mulige større ordre i høst.

• Priskonkurransen innen MPEG2-enkodere har samtidig blitt intensivert mer

enn forventet. Harmonic rapporterer et prisfallet på 25% innen denne

produktgruppen det siste året. På vegne av Tandberg TV er dette mer enn

vi setter pris på, selv om selskapet i tillegg sitter med produkter som er

mindre konkurranseutsatt.

• Vi foretrekker å ta høyde for en økende risiko for at prispresset innen

MPEG2 kan gi seg utslag i anbudene for levering av MPEG4. Det faktum at

flere MPEG4 lanseringer utsettes til 2006 vil forsterke konkurransen

ettersom flere produsenter da vil være kommet i leveringsposisjon.

• Analytikernes konsensus for Q4 og 2006 synes å ligge for lavt. I henhold til

estimatene ventes et fall i topplinjeveksten fra 21% i 2005 til 15% i 2006,

hvilket ikke er konsistent med dagens verdsettelse basert på multipler.

Forventningene blant investorene ligger på den annen side sannsynligvis

høyere. Vi venter at prispresset innen MPEG2 vil avta i 2006 med priser

etablert på et lavere nivå. Økende utbredelse av AVC og HD etter hvert som

MPEG utskipningene kommer i opp betydelige volumer og prisene på settop-

box’er kommer betydelig ned vil også gi avtagende prispress.

• Selv om vi venter at Tandberg TV snart vil kunne annonsere nye ordre og vi

er komfortable med utviklingen i Q3 tror vi ikke timingen for kjøp av aksjen

er riktig og endrer anbefalingen til hold.

 

18/08/05

[Zoonic]

- F I R S T L O O K -

 

Title: Further volumes expected to DirecTV

 

Company: Tandberg TV

Recommendation: Accumulate

Share price: NOK 89.50

Target: NOK 100.00

 

Tandberg TV today announces a new order from satellite TV provider DirecTV for MPEG-4 HD compression systems. The contract value exceeds USD 7.5m, and the entire delivery will be made during 3Q 05.

 

Assuming a list price per encoder of USD 100k, but with significant volume discounts for such a delivery, today's order is for compression of an estimated 100 HD channels. Given that Tandberg TV's first order from DirecTV (USD 9m, announced 28 January 05) probably was for more than 100 channels, TAT's deliveries to DirecTV per ultimo 3Q would be in excess of 200 channels. This means that only 1/8th of DirecTV's planned HDTV rollout of 1.6k channels would be covered per 3Q, and that one could expect DirecTV orders of significant volumes also going forward.

 

According to the company, the effect of today's contract is included in TAT's 3Q guidance. However, we see more upside than downside to our NOK 467m revenue estimate for 3Q after the new order from DirecTV. As concerns margins, we have the reason to believe that TAT will achieve higher-than-average margins for this order, as the lower value of today's order compared to the first order from DirecTV reflects a lower number of encoders rather than any material price decrease.

 

Conclusion:

Although today's order from DirecTV is somewhat smaller than we had expected at this stage in DirecTV's rollout, the contract is an important indicator of Tandberg TV's competitive strength and makes us believe in further orders from DirecTV going forward.

 

 

first/23/08/05

[Zoonic]

Key Issues:

 

"Competitive position confirmed"

 

Tandberg TV won the second phase of DirecTV's HDTV deployment- competitive position confirmed

 

Emerging worries about possible decline in margins reversed. Significant further potential in DirecTV cooperation

 

Contract largely discounted for in estimates- but confidence increased

 

Trading at a discount to own history- but no longer charmingly cheap

 

CHANGES IN ESTIMATES/ TARGET PRICE/ RECOMMENDATION

 

Adjusting estimates slightly: Increasing 3Q gross margin and revenues, lowering 4Q top line. Zero changes to 2006-2007 estimates

 

Reiterating NOK 100 target price and Accumulate recommendation

 

INVESTMENT CASE

 

The market for Digital TV infrastructure is in rapid recovery after several tough years. Tandberg TV is progressively building confidence in its ability to capitalize on the development, including its technological leadership related to new encoding technologies.

 

first/24/08/05

[Zoonic]

Q3/05 Oppdatering fra DnBNOR

 

Tandberg TV Hold

Kortsiktig risiko redusert

24.08.2005

 

Aksjekurs og kursmål

Aksjekurs NOK 90.50

Kursmål 3m NOK 95.00

Overraskende nok valgte DirecTV å plassere en ny ordre hos

TAT før evalueringen av den kommersielle lanseringen av

tjenesten er gjennomført. Dette innebærer redusert risiko for

estimatene og holder samtidig prisene oppe, hvilket helt klart

er positivt. Samlet potensial på kunden er imidlertid uendret.

Før ledelsen gir eventuelle nye signaler for Q3 vil utviklingen

innen selskapets tradisjonelle områder være usikker. DnB NOR

Markets opprettholder derfor en holdanbefaling. Kursmålet

justeres fra NOK 85-90 til NOK 95.

 

• Etter at vi i februar oppgraderte kursmålet i TAT fra NOK 60 til NOK 90 har

potensialet i samarbeidet med DirecTV vært en nøkkel i verdsettelsen. Vi

hadde ventet en 50% større avtale i desember, men denne andre ordren fra

DirecTV reduserer for det første risikoen og gir for det andre mindre rom for

priskonkurranse. Dette siste som en følge av at bestillingen kommer tidlig.

At TAT får en slik ordre bør imidlertid ikke komme som en overraskelse.

 

• Utstyret vil bli levert i løpet av Q3 og vi venter en sekvensiell vekst på 9-

10% for kvartalet. Selskapet har imidlertid ikke endret sin guiding om en

flat utvikling, selv om det indikeres en viss mulighet for noe vekst. Dersom

Q3 resultatene ikke kommer inn over estimatene vil dette i tilfelle indikere

en noe svakere utvikling innen selskapets tradisjonelle virksomhet. Dette vil

også stemme overens med priskonkurransen Harmonic kommenterte i sin

kvartalsoppdatering. Vi legger til grunn at dette ikke er en varig trend.

 

• Estimatene for Q3 og for hele 2005 er oppjustert, mens estimatet for Q4 og

senere er tatt noe ned. Fortsatt har vi tro på at aksjen har et solid potensial

for verdistigning på sikt og gitt den forventede utviklingen i 2006. På kort

sikt tror vi imidlertid en estimert omsetning på NOK 500 mill i Q3, flate

utsikter og fravær av de virkelige store ordrene ikke vil være tilstrekkelig til

å drive kursen forbi nivået på NOK 90-100. Vi opprettholder derfor en

holdanbefaling med et positivt bias.

 

• I etterkant av IBC-konferansen i Amsterdam 12.september vil vi komme

tilbake med en oppdatering av estimater og utviklingen i bransjen.

 

 

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[tandy]

EBU & Tandberg Television DVB-S2 Trials Confirm Significant Bandwidth Savings !

2nd September, 2005

 

Tandberg Television will unveil the world’s first end-to-end DVB-S2 system for standard definition (SD) and high definition (HD) satellite broadcasting at IBC in Amsterdam.

 

The compression industry leader will launch new satellite modulators and professional receivers, designed to maximise the power of the DVB-S2 satellite transmission standard.

 

At the same time Tandberg Television announces the successful completion of its first full DVB-S2 trial. The series of tests performed in conjunction with the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) in Geneva tested the performance of the Tandberg Television TT1260 SD MPEG-2 receiver with an integrated DVB-S2 demodulator. The results proved that the new transmission standard can give up to 30% increased throughput in a given bandwidth and that the Tandberg professional receiver is compliant with the DVB-S2 standard.

 

“Our trials with Tandberg Television demonstrated that the increased efficiency of DVB-S2 8PSK modulation could be used to reduce the occupied bandwidth of our existing 4-carrier system, allowing the introduction of a 5th carrier of equal data rate. The power of DVB-S2 was spectacularly proven here as this was achieved with no loss in link margin compared with the existing QPSK DVB-S system,” says Didier Debellemanière, Head of Technical Development, EBU -Eurovision Operations.

 

Visitors to IBC will be able to see the latest DVB-S2 system in action on the Tandberg Television stand (Hall 1:461). The end-to-end solution for satellite contribution and distribution will demonstrate how satellite broadcasters can build a cost-effective, bandwidth-efficient DVB-S2 system using the latest encoding, decoding, multiplexing and control technology. Moreover, the combination of savings in bit rate from advanced video encoding (MPEG-4 AVC and VC-1) and the increased efficiency of DVB-S2 makes the transmission of HDTV an efficient and financially attractive reality.

 

“Our tests with the EBU, together with our first-to-market IBC launch of DVB-S2 modulators and receivers, shows that the long-awaited next generation standard for satellite broadcasting has finally arrived. Tandberg Television is pleased to be at the forefront of this new wave and proud to once again be collaborating with our long-standing customer the EBU to demonstrate the real-world application of advanced technologies,” says Roger Bolton, Director of Business Development for Tandberg Television.

 

IBC will see the global launch of the 1RU Tandberg SM6620 and SM6625 satellite modulators with IF output and L-band output respectively. These future proof products support DVB-S, DVB-DSNG and DVB-S2 modulation modes and are available with the award winning PREKORTM Dynamic Pre-correction technology to make these modulators the class leaders in their field.

 

Tandberg Television will also introduce its integrated DVB-S2 demodulator within its TT1260 SD and TT1280 HD professional receivers. The DVB-S2 demodulator offers QPSK and 8PSK capability with either 4 High quality L-band inputs or 3 L-band inputs and 1 IF monitor input. In order to provide an easy migration route to the new standard the receiver also supports the existing QPSK DVB-S standard.

 

At IBC, Tandberg Television’s Director of Engineering, Simon Bigg and David Edwards, Satellite Modems Product Manager will present a paper entitled “Application of Emerging Technologies to Cost-Effective Delivery of High Definition TV over Satellite”. The paper, which will be presented on Thursday 8th September as part of the Delivery to the Consumer theme day, will examine the technical features and practical performance of new video compression technologies - MPEG-4 AVC and SMPTE VC-1 - and DVB-S2 modulation. It will look at how these new technologies can be combined to address the increasing demand for bandwidth and transponder space which is being created by the growth of HDTV in satellite contribution, distribution and DTH applications.

 

 

Weblinks: http://www.tandbergtv.com http://www.ebu.ch

 

http://www.broadcastbuyer.tv/publish/article_5553.shtml

[Zoonic]

Key Issues:

 

"Standing firm in crowded competitive landscape"

 

High activity and focus on High Definition on IBC trade show. Many players claiming to be at forefront of technology development. Tandberg TV standing firm with its integrated approach towards customers

 

Interviews with CEOs of Harmonic and Modulus:

 

- Harmonic CEO seems more relaxed than on previous occasions. Happy to launch its MPEG-4 HD encoder, but expects prices to fall

 

- Modulus CEO says company has shipped a limited number of High Definition encoders to both telcos, cable and satellite companies. Full availability of HD encoder in late September

 

Recent share price decline has improved relative pricing somewhat

 

 

 

CHANGES IN ESTIMATES/TARGET PRICE/RECOMMENDATION

 

None

 

INVESTMENT CASE Target 100NOK

 

The market for Digital TV infrastructure is in rapid recovery after several tough years. Tandberg TV is progressively building confidence in its ability to capitalize on the development, including its technological leadership related to new encoding technologies.

[tandy]

Terayon for sale?

Cisco, Scientific Atlanta, and Tandberg are believed to be eyeing the company.

 

Gitit Pincas 22 Sep 05 11:32

 

On the face of it, Terayon Communications Systems’ (Nasdaq: TERN) share is not behaving like that of a company in negotiations for its acquisition by an international giant. The share “soared” 0.3% on Tuesday and was flat yesterday, bringing it gain since the beginning of the month to 18%, just like many other companies in the US for which no acquisition is contemplated. Not something to write home about.

Nevertheless, behind the scenes, capital market sources say, quite a few things are happening at the company. It is believed that Terayon, which provides digital video applications and broadband access solutions for households, is in advanced negotiations for its sale to a large company. As far as can be seen, three companies are involved in the process: Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO), which in recent months was in talks to acquire Terayon, before dropping the idea, but has now apparently regained interest; Scientific Atlanta (NYSE: SFA), which has a $5.5 billion market cap; and Tandberg Data ASA, which is traded in Oslo at a market cap of $1.8 billion. Two more companies were mentioned yesterday as possible candidates to acquire Terayon: Harmonic (Nasdaq: HLIT) and Thomson Corporation (NYSE, TSX: TOC). In other words, it looks like Terayon is for sale, and there are quite a few possible buyers. It all depends on the price.

 

Terayon’s current share price is $3.90, reflecting a market cap of $302 million. Estimates of the share price being discussed in the negotiations range from $4, with almost no premium, to $5, a premium of about 28% on the current market price. The market cap range that these prices reflect is $310-385 million. No response from Terayon to the report was forthcoming.

 

Zaki and Shlomo Rakib, who founded Terayon in 1993, currently each own 5.4% of it, including currently exercisable options, or 3.9% excluding options. They no longer actively manage the company; Zaki Rakib is chairman, and Shlomo Rakib is a director. Zaki Rakib recently bought a house on Galei Hatchelet Street in Herzliya, a prestigious location, for $22 million from Martin Schlaff, and he plans to move to Israel.

 

Terayon has $105 million cash, and its equity is $55 million. One thing that will be remembered to the company’s credit is that it succeeded in raising $500 million in convertible bonds just before the tech bubble burst, which enabled it to survive the crisis period.

 

Terayon is not an Israeli company, but it has deep Israeli roots. The company has 200 employees worldwide, including ten in Israel. It recently fired 30 employees, and has retained only marketing and technical support departments in Israel (Terayon began 2005 with 37 employees in Israel).

 

It is difficult to forget how Terayon was run during the bubble years. The company had no hesitation in declaring its intention of becoming a one-stop shop in broadband communications. Zaki Rakib mentioned more than once Cisco’s successful model as a source of inspiration. The company went on an acquisition spree in the late 1990s, picking up ten technology companies, mostly Israeli, in the process, at a cost of just under $950 million in cash and shares. None of these acquisitions did much for the business of Terayon, which had to write off goodwill amounting to $500 million after the bubble burst in 2001.

 

The decline was felt in both the company’s performance and investors’ confidence, and its share plummeted from $145 to less than $2. Terayon’s revenue currently runs at $30 million, and it reported a $508,000 loss in the second quarter. Its accumulated losses currently exceed $1 billion.

 

Terayon is now in the middle of a transition from being a provider of cable modems with a focus on data communications, to a focus on video. Analysts believe that only in 2006 will it be possible to know whether Terayon has managed to break into the latter market.

 

The values being discussed in the market testify to the enormous destruction of value in the company in recent years, and its inability to reach critical mass in its various markets.

 

Published by Globes [online] - www.globes.co.il - on September 22, 2005

[Egri Bikaver]

and Tandberg Data ASA,

 

- De har kanskkje blandet sammen Tandberg Data og Tandberg Televisjon as?

[tandy]

Bra observert! :D

[Zoonic]

Dette skriver First om TAT idag:

 

TAT; ufortjent billig

 

Vi tar opp aksjen til Accumulate etter at kursutviklingen relativt til sammenlignbare norske og amerikanske selskaper har vært ufortjent svak siste 3 måneder.

 

TAT har ligget stille mens øvrige aksjer har steget 15-25%. Hensyntatt forventet inntjening de neste 12 mnd. (P/E), har aksjen kommet inn fra å være litt dyr på 20+ nivå til 17,5. Dette er på linje med mer sykliske Eltek etter at sistnevnte har steget fra 12,5 i mai. Vi ser ingen reelle fundamentale årsaker til denne reprisingen nedover. Dog tror vi at emisjonen tidlig i september uten direkte annonsert formål har vært med på å legge et lokk på kursen.

 

IBC messen tidligere i måneden bekreftet inntrykket av at TAT er solid posisjonert teknologisk og markedsmessig i det viktige MPEG 4HD segmentet for encodere. Oppblomstringen av nye aktører innen encodere bekrefter forventningene om tøffere konkurranse fremover. Imidlertid mener vi at de mindre spillerne vil ha en klar ulempe i forhold til de etablerte aktørene pga. manglende bredde i produkttilbudet.

 

Vi ser i tillegg et sterkt 3kv med topplinje på NOK 472 mill mot NOK 345 i fjor, og en EBIT-margin på 55,6% mot 49,1% i 2004. Vi mener et resultat i dette området skal være tilstrekkelig til å dra aksjen i gang igjen og tar opp anbefalingen fra Market til Accmulate.

 

 

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[Zoonic]

First idag:

 

TAT; bytt fra TAA til TAT

 

Tandberg Televisjon aksjen har den siste tiden utviklet seg svakt i forhold til både TAA og Harmonic. Vi mener den langsiktige veksthistorien til selskapet også rettferdiggjør at man bør sitte med denne aksjen. TAT har relativt sett en mindre markedsandel, og dermed et større vekstpotensiale enn TAA. Vi ser også en viss konservatisme i markedet, det vil si større lojalitet fra kundenes side.

 

Vi venter gode 3. kvartals tall fra både TAA og TAT, men etter den siste tids kursutvikling taler prisingen i favør av TAT-aksjen. Vi anser EV/EBIT på 2006 estimater på 12 som attraktivt, og anbefaler dermed å bytte fra TAA til TAT.

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report.

 

 

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[Zoonic]

- F I R S T L O O K -

 

Title: Very encouraging IPTV contract

 

Company: Tandberg TV

 

Recommendation: Accumulate

 

Share price: NOK 87

 

Target: NOK 100

 

Tandberg TV today announces a USD 5 million IPTV contract with a leading North American telco. This is the company's largest agreement to date in the North American telco segment. The company does not disclose the name of the customer. As indicated by the wording in the contract ("further order"), Tandberg TV has made previous deliveries to this customer. The fullfillment will mainly happen in Q3, with some additional deliveries in Q4.

 

 

Conclusion: Previously this year, there has been some disappointment due to Tandberg TV's loss of the large SBC IPTV contract. Today's contract is therefore a very important verification of Tandberg TV's competitiveness also in the North American IPTV segment, and the contract increases our confidence in short-term estimates.

[Zoonic]

DnBNOR med en ny analyse av TAT

[Zoonic]

Key Issues: TAT

 

Extreme underperformance

Since the TAT share peaked at NOK 94 in late August, the share price has fallen by NOK 20, and the share has underperformed the Norwegian IT universe sharply. We will argue that the magnitude of the decline is unjustified.

Bear stories probably have little merit

 

Several bear stories "justifying" the sharp decline are widespread in the market. We believe the most important are fear of weak Q3 and Q4 reports and a possible value destructive acquisition. In our view, the chance that Q3 should fall significantly short is low, given that the company has not warned already. Timing issues related to large orders may cause Q4 to be somewhat weaker than our previous NOK 522 million top line estimate, and we thus reduce this to NOK 487 million. The probability of a very weak quarter is, however, minimal. Regarding acquisitions, we will not judge until we see a possible announcement.

 

Even in a worst case scenario the share price decline is exaggerated

 

Then, what if all the bear stories actually have merit? Even if Tandberg TV should waste all the proceeds from the recent share issue (which we believe is a highly unlikely scenario), the share price decline is exaggerated. The direct value impact of an earnings miss is also negligible in the context of the NOK 1.5 bn market value lost over recent weeks.

 

Discount to Norwegian IT, unjustified underperformance. Buy.

 

As there is no indication of weakness in neither Tandberg TV's market position nor the market development, we maintain our long term estimates and NOK 100 target price. The recent underperformance trigger a recommendation upgrade from Accumulate to Buy.

[Zoonic]

Key Issues:

 

Bear stories without merit

Tandberg TV's Q3 report confirmed that widespread bear stories lacked foundation. TAT's revenues were broadly in line with our and consensus estimates, but the gross margin and the cost control was impressive. Management did not provide quantitative short-term guidance, but we saw nothing in the report to suggest concern over 4Q05.

GoldPocket pricey on 2005 multiples, but potentially a shining deal

 

With an EV/Sales (2005) transaction multiple of about 6, Tandberg TV's USD 78.5 million acquisition of interactive TV provider GoldPocket Interactive is far from cheap at first glance. But, the target company has been a great growth story so far. And, a scenario analysis illustrates that the deal could appear very favorable a few years down the road.

 

Incorporating GoldPocket from 2006. Slightly increased estimates.

 

Besides incorporating our base case estimates for GoldPocket, we have lifted our gross margin estimate a little for Q4 and beyond. We also reduce estimates for operating costs. The net effect of these changes is a slight increase in recurring EPS estimates, for 2005, 2006 and beyond.

 

Increasing price target to NOK 105, maintaining Buy

 

Based on our new estimates, Tandberg TV is priced at an EV/EBIT of about 10. Considering the solid short-term momentum, the long-term growth drivers and TAT's competitive position, this looks a moderate multiple. The upward adjustment of estimates and confident outlook prompt a NOK 5 increase in our price target to NOK 105. We maintain our Buy recommendation.

 

 

first/18/10/05

 

 

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[Zoonic]

TAT; grunnløse bekymringer

 

Ledelsen i TAT var på besøk hos oss i morges. De virket meget komfortable med den underliggende utviklingen inn i 4. kv., selv om de nå går bort fra eksplisitt guiding. Vi tar opp kursmålet i aksjen med NOK 5 til NOK 105 basert på oppkjøpet av GoldPocket og den sterke bruttomarginen i 3. kv. Vi ser at frykten før tallene for et svakt 3. kv. og uro for 4. kv., samt bekymringer for anvendelsen av emisjonenskapitalen nå er lagt død.

 

Oppkjøpet av GoldPocket priser selskapet på EV/Sales 6 for 2005. Selskapet har hatt 5 kvartaler med lønnsom drift (EBITA) og topplinjen har doblet seg årlig. Vi ser at en fornuftig avmatning av veksttakten gir en EV/EBIT for 2008 ned mot 8, og konkluderer med at oppkjøpet er økonomisk forsvarlig.

 

Det er også interessant at GoldPocket har samme institusjonelle kunder som TAT, men innsalget er i stor grad i den kreative delen av TV selskapene, mens TAT har levert på hardware siden. Dette gir åpenbart gode muligheter for kryssalg.

 

TAT-aksjen har sklidd nedover de siste ukene og inkludert gårsdagens marginale oppgang er aksjen ned over 20%. Prisingen er nå 10,2x på EV/EBIT, hvilket vi mener er gunstig gitt gode utsikter til vekst og lønnsomhet i selskapet. Vi understreker vår Buy-anbefaling.

 

first/18/10/05

 

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[Zoonic]

- F I R S T L O O K -

 

Title: Harmonic sacrificing margins for revenues

 

 

 

Company: Tandberg TV

 

Recommendation: Buy

 

Share price: NOK 78.25

 

Target: NOK 105.00

 

Tandberg TV's key competitor, Harmonic, yesterday delivered a relatively weak Q3 report. Revenues came in at USD 61 million, ahead of street expectations of USD 56 million, and corresponding to a sequential increase of 2%. With this top line, the company is well on track to end up in the high end of its USD 100-120 million revenue guidance for Q3. Driven by a high share of low margin fiber optic component shipments to Verizon and a USD 1.6 million inventory writedown, the 35% gross margin was, however, disastrous. The share fell 7.5% in after hours trading.

 

The segment most similar to Tandberg TV's business, Convergent Systems, delivered a very poor quarter with revenues of USD 35.8 million, down 17% sequentially (compares to Tandberg TV's 4% growth). According to the company, the main shortfall in shipments is related to cable customers (Comcast in particular). Among qualitative comments in the conference call, we noticed that Harmonic claims to be ahead of schedule in the testing of its MPEG 4 HD encoder. The previously announced year end launch date is, however, reiterated. Harmonic also says that it does not expect any action from potential IPTV customer Bellsouth in the short term.

 

Harmonic indicated that the Q4 results will be similar to the figures delivered in Q3 (but possibly with a somewhat higher gross margin).

 

Conclusion: Harmonic's Q4 report clearly displays that Tandberg TV is winning share in the market for digital headend equipment. The flip side of this is obviously that the market growth is weaker than what could be assumed from looking at Tandberg TV's Q3 report in isolation. In summary, we believe Harmonic's report should have a neutral impact on the TAT-share.

 

 

first/21/05

 

 

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[Zoonic]

TAT; god kjøpsanledning

 

Vi mener TAT-aksjen har fått ufortjent røff behandling i markedet de siste 2 ukene. Aksjen er nå priset på 10,9x EV/EBIT. Dette er et svært attraktivt nivå gitt selskapets gode topplinjevekst, sterke lønnsomhet og solide markedsposisjon. Vi har nylig hatt besøk av ledelsen på vårt morgenmøte, og vi registrerte at de virket meget komfortable med den underliggende utviklingen inn i 4. kv., på tross av at de nå går bort fra eksplisitte uttalelser om fremtidsutsiktene for selskapet.

 

Vi ser meget positivt på oppkjøpet av GoldPocket, og den sterke bruttomarginen selskapet kunne vise til i 3. kv. Harmonics rapporten bekreftet TATs ledende posisjon, og dette ble ytterligere forsterket av den nye DirecTV kontrakten som beviser selskapets teknologiske forsprang i markedet.

 

Vi har et kursmål på NOK 105, og gjentar vår Buy-anbefaling på aksjen.

 

 

first/24/10/05

 

 

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[Zoonic]

OPPDATERING FRA DNB

[tandy]

Dette er fremtidens TV!

 

http://www.c10n.info/archives/254

 

DirecTV Now Using MPEG-4 Technology

TMCnet: DirecTV Inc. recently started transmitting high-definition MPEG-4 signals in Detroit and plans to bring MPEG-4 technology to each of its markets during the next few years.

 

November 25th, 2005 Posted by Sachin Garg Permanent link

 

TMCnet: Although the move to MPEG-4 will make no difference, in terms of picture quality, to DirecTV’s customers, it makes a huge difference to the company because MPEG-4 signals eat up far less bandwidth. While a single MPEG-2 HD stream takes up the space of six standard-definition TV channels, MPEG-4 is at least twice as efficient, taking up the equivalent of three channels or less.

 

Next year, the company plans to launch more MPEG-4 HDTV signals in more markets, culminating in 2007, when it plans to offer 1,500 local and 150 national channels in the format on four new satellites.

 

In Detroit, DirecTV’s first market, the company is taking the MPEG-2 HD feeds of the ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox affiliates, digitizing and encrypting their signals, then transporting them via its national fiber backbone to its uplink facility in California. Using encoders from Tandberg Television, the signals are converted to MPEG-4, then sent out via one of DirecTVs Ka-band satellites.

[Zoonic]

Hei Tandy, siden du limer inn det spennende om Wincor-Nixdorf så les denne...

Du følger TAT virker det som.

 

Key Issues: TAT

 

Encoder contract from Echostar due within 1-2 months

Following Tandberg TV’s success with close to USD 25m of MPEG 4 HD orders to DirecTV, significant interest is connected to what DirecTV’s main competitor, Echostar, will do on the HD arena. After discussions with reliable sources we now believe the award of a contract to an encoding supplier is due within 1-2 months.

 

Good probability for Tandberg TV contract win

 

Echostar’s process to choose supplier include rigid comparisons of the encoders’ performance. So far two tests have been carried through, where encoders from Tandberg TV, Modulus and Harmonic have been tested head to head. Product performance speaks in the favor of Tandberg TV and Modulus, and we think there is a good chance that this will weigh heavier than Harmonic’s historical relationship to Echostar.

 

Continued delays for competitors

 

Neither Harmonic nor Modulus currently has its MPEG4 HD encoders ready for shipping. According to Modulus, the company will have its product available some time during December. Harmonic says its encoder will be ready when customer orders are received. This builds a strong case for a Tandberg TV contract win - Tandberg TV launched its encoder in January and has already shipped hundreds of units.

 

Valuation

 

Due to inclusion of GoldPocket in estimates from 4Q 05 and inclusion of final transaction details, our estimates are slightly adjusted. Tandberg TV is trading at an EV/ EBIT (2006) of about 11. This is in the high end of the Norwegian IT hardware universe. However, we believe the prospects for significant contract wins and a strong long term growth story substantiate a slight premium, and continue to rate the TAT share Buy, target price NOK 105.

 

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Mer fra First:

 

TAT; økt sjanse for Echostar kontrakt

 

Etter en besøksrunde hos TATs konkurrenter i USA mener vi det er høyere sannsynlighet for kontrakt med Echostar enn tidligere antatt. Echostar har historisk anvendt Harmonic, men samtalene vi har hatt med ledelsen hos forskjellige aktører peker i retning av at det er TAT og Modulus som gjør det best i de tekniske testene. Det blir også vektlagt at TAT har levert i kommersiell skala allerede. Vi tror nå også at kontrakten vil bli tildelt i løpet av de neste 1-2 månedene.

TAT har allerede en kontrakt med Echostar’s hovedkonkurrent DirecTV, og denne står for om lag 10% av totalvolumet i 2005, med potensiale til å bli betydelig større i 2006. Vi mener derfor at en eventuell tildeling av Echostar vil være en kursdriver for aksjen.

 

TAT-aksjen har ligget stille på om lag NOK 80 de siste 2 ukene. Aksjen prises nå på EV/EBIT 11,1, hvilket framstår som gunstig gitt god vekst og lønnsomhet i selskapet, samt en sterk markedsposisjon. Våre anslag peker mot en omsetning i 2007 på NOK 2,75 mrd mot NOK 1,35 mrd i 2004.

 

Vi gjentar vår Buy-anbefaling.

 

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[tandy]

Takk for enda flere gode nyheter Zoonic!

Jo jeg har fulgt TAT siden 27 kroner og har villig vekk tradet mye på denne

Det er vel den aksjen i tillegg til TAD som har sikret meg gevinst tross store Tomra tap de siste 2-3 årene :-)

 

Som alle etterhvert vil forstå har TAT de riktige produktene i tiden og det er en uslepen diamant vi har investert våre penger i.

 

Jeg er litt ut og inn men tar sikte på å plassere en god del kronasje i denne aksjen etterhvert

 

Blir spennende fremover!

 

Lykke til med dine investeringer

[Zoonic]

Mer om TAT, Tandy...bra dette?

 

 

- F I R S T L O O K -

 

 

Title: Exciting contract in the US

 

 

 

Company: Tandberg TV

 

Recommendation: Buy

 

Share price: NOK 80.75

 

Target: NOK 105.00

 

 

Tandberg TV today announced a USD 4m contract with a "leading US digital television service provider". This probably means a satellite provider or a cable operator. In either case, it is very positive:

 

· If it is a satellite provider, it is probably Echostar (there are only two leading Satellite providers in the US, DirecTV and Echostar). The contract should then have significant further potential. The DirecTV cooperation has so far resulted in USD 25m revenues (and counting).

 

· If it is a cable operator, it would be a breakthrough in the US cable industry, which would also be encouraging. We deem this less probable than the former alternative, however, as no cable operator to our knowledge has voiced ambitions for a near term transition to MPEG-4 encoding.

 

Conclusion: In conclusion, today's announcement is very encouraging. We will emphasize that our current information regarding the contract is limited. However, it increases confidence in our 4Q estimates, and confirms Tandberg TV's position as the leader in advanced encoding products. Regardless of who the customer is, the further potential should be significant.

 

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[Zoonic]

Key Issues: TAT

 

Christmas gift from Echostar!

 

 

Winning USD 4m contract with Echostar for delivery in Q4 and Q1. Only the very first step of Echostar’s rollout

 

Consolidating technology leadership position. Competitors still comfortably behind

 

Strong growth drivers in place for 2006. Increased confidence in estimates

 

Expecting continued strong newsflow

 

 

 

CHANGE IN RECOMMENDATION/ESTIMATES/TARGET

 

None - Target 105NOK

 

 

 

INVESTMENT CASE

The market for Digital TV infrastructure is in rapid recovery after several tough years. Tandberg TV is progressively building confidence in its ability to capitalize on the development, including its technological leadership related to new encoding technologies.

 

 

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